cartography

Some fun with maps, although of course, not to be taken too seriously. One should not take words too seriously, after all. (”True” names? Would that be like we would recognize the place and know the name without hearing it, being destined to live there forever?) No, it’s just fun to look at etymologies and think about the meanings of place-names. But I appreciate the debunking too.

plato called it

very funny though perhaps actually quite depressing video behind the scenes at the daily show, on interviewing voters in this election. It’s further reminder that these systems don’t work not because of some particular disorder regarding the method or implementation or dynamic of power, but simply the force of that power itself, the intelligence of human beings. Hopefully we will muddle through with all our checks and balances

happy election!

I voted in downtown manhattan, where my ballot for barack would hardly make a difference, and I know several people who voted third party or write-in to make a point (at least one even after having campaigned in PA for Obama) but I enjoyed being a part of history. I had intended to vote the D ticket for months, just because I don’t think third party ballots mean anything (if you want to change the system that’s not how to do it) but I only got excited about it in the last couple weeks, and I really was elated after coming out of the booth.

I realize Obama is just one guy, who will certainly run into trouble when it gets down to nuts and bolts and everyone expects different things from him, but at the same time, there is a symbolic importance to this that is transcendent, and there is the possibility of some real work getting done, even if only a very small portion of what some people imagine or hope for. But just getting people excited and involved will make a difference…

Still upset about Proposition 8, though. I hope that somehow doesn’t last long…

This is an interesting little piece on one mr ayers, friendly neighborhood terrorist… who in an interview, I have to admit, it is hard to stay upset with. Power of rhetoric or has he been misunderstood the whole time? Anyway, not that it’s an issue now, just a funny bit of trivia.

Moderate repubs, like Rice and McCain, took the news well & graciously, but some of the bloggers were much less appealing…

another break.

It is already halfway through fall – unbelievable. The election is two weeks away, and I’m feeling more calm about it generally (did you know Obama played fantasy football?). But, I think I’ve reached a turning point in my own work that means I’ll be offline a bit more (I know I say this from time to time, but … well, I’m saying it again. but I think I have better motivation this time, since I’ve figured out an important component in what I’m doing…)

Here are some links so you didn’t waste time visiting …

This is an interesting story about Einstein.

Here is science about sunspots.

Plus, slate reviews books about English.

The undecided voter

Colin Powell’s endorsement of Obama is being given a lot of attention as a powerful move, a thoughtful speech, and a painful jab to the right wing. But one thing that struck me about it was the fact that Powell basically admitted to being one of those many undecided voters the media has been chastising and the comedy shows have been mocking. He said on Meet the Press that he’d been watching carefully these last few weeks and finally chose Obama. But he apparently wasn’t sure until just over two weeks to the election, when voting has already begun in some states. Yet the press still respected and adored him.

He didn’t say he had to decide whether to come out and state publicly that he would vote for Obama; he said he had to decide for himself whether to vote for Obama. He personally just wasn’t sure what to do until he had had time to watch them in action this fall. Does that mean we should think less of Powell or more of undecided voters? Well – that’s up to you. I’m just pointing out the overlap.

Entertainment

The times talks about Palin’s future in show biz, which is what I thought of too, after watching her appearance on SNL… She can draw a crowd in politics, but it’s limited, and she seemed more relaxed in the non-political world, or at very least in non-political politics…

Rachel Maddow addressed this charm offensive approach of the McCain campaign; very smart breakdown. Perhaps it won’t work, especially since McCain’s money is so limited and the two level attack is so hard to maintain in such an information-heavy society. This week’s shifts on election projection are minimal but a bit more friendly to McCain than the last few weeks have been…

what you never know

I always try to keep in mind that life in the real world is hard to predict, but like everyone I also find myself turning to previous cases that are similar enough to this one, to try to predict anyway. Six months ago I thought McCain had a real chance, and after the RNC I was sure it would be a close race. It was only last week when the polls seemed to just keep getting tougher for him, and Obama just kept cruising along, that I finally felt like maybe we didn’t have to worry that much. But after that last debate and a few positive pop culture appearances for McCain and Palin (Letterman, the Alfred E Smith show, SNL) I could see McCain just being the easy going nice guy underdog, not worrying about it, and Obama trying too hard and irritating everyone with his constant barrage of boring politician-ads. I’m reminded that it doesn’t matter what happened last time or how things go in what percentage of times. All that matters is what is happening right now and how things are going this time.

So it’s a false sense of security to look at 95% likelihood of winning… That site is based on a baseball stat model, which is hardly based on beliefs and psychology at all, and mostly on facts and abilities. BUt politics is all about opinions and group tendencies. It’s a whole different ball game, so to speak. Also, teams actually win and lose multiple times a week, whereas in politics it’s just polls multiple times a week that are providing numbers – the actual “game” only happens once, and could be totally misrepresented by polls the whole time, for a whole host of reasons.

I know the Tribune endorsed him, and that overall more newspapers have gone with Obama. Plus today Colin Powell endorsed Obama. But this is all for people who are following politics on purpose, not for people who just catch sight of things here or there. And Colin is sort of part of the old school anyway. So even with all this I feel like things are less secure now than they were, that McCain has found more of his groove, talking anti-socialism and being a fun guy. Not that it will work, but I think it will be closer.

W.

Oliver Stone’s new movie might have made a better mini-series – it was really long, but felt like it could have been much longer; it didn’t really have much of a plot; and except for Josh Brolin, who was excellent, and Cromwell & Burstyn, who were realistic as people but don’t really bother with the details in their portrayal of the senior Bushes, most of the cast feel a bit like caricatures (especially thandie newton as Rice, who is just awful – I don’t know if that’s the fault of the script, which didn’t leave much room for a character to develop, or if they cut the part down because her portrayal belonged on SNL). It seems like in order to try to make it fit into a movie, it focuses around Iraq and the father-son relation – Junior goes in to finish what Daddy never did, in order to get approval/ one up his stand-offish but never far away father.

It’s an interesting and I think well balanced story – it’s not told harshly, but reminds you of the amount of psychology and insider string-pulling and so forth that actually ends up running our government – how so much of what happens is built on just as emotional or shakespearian ‘reasoning’ as the statesmen of the past… we imagine it’s rational democracy now, but it’s not nearly that different… sure, we have more safeguards, but the impulses, the underlying motivations of the people in charge, haven’t changed much. We just have slightly better ways to keep them in check.

Overall, Bush comes across as a nice enough guy who doesn’t quite know what he’s doing, but has a motivation to show his dad he can do it. He isn’t malicious; he’d just rather be a center fielder. But as the continual sports day dreams show, he is never very good there either… he can’t box his father, and he can’t keep his eye on the ball in the stadium. The movie ends before the ball drops for sure, with just the dazed and confused GWB looking around him, which does seem appropriate. You almost feel sorry for him. But… not really.

last debate

Finally, a little action! Was that the demur Mr Schieffer directing conversation, a roundtable creating the right environment, or just some form of repressed campaign energy necessarily finding its release? Whatever it was, the third debate was certainly the best of the three (go NYC?). From my perspective, McCain started off stronger, but wandered into points of confusion along the way, and by the end seemed to have failed to present a fully coherent picture of his vision. However, he did manage to throw some doubts about Obama out there, especially regarding taxes and health care. On the other hand, in a time of economic crisis, I don’t know if people will care as much about the fears of ‘great society’ governing.

For his part, Obama seemed tired and even a little bored to start with. He managed to be clear and deflect things and sound smart, but he sounded like he was going to go back into talking points at the start, and I never saw the spark in the eye the way you used to see with Bill Clinton when he’d do these things, that showed he loved explaining it. Near the end, when the issues turned to more personal things and he could talk about common ground and what we’re all looking for, I felt like I could see a little bit of hope in him. I think it’s just he doesn’t like arguments and debates that much; he’d rather do speeches and orations where he can talk about shared humanity… A lover not a fighter, sort of thing.

… Not to say he’s not a fighter, by the way. If you haven’t seen the Frontline special on Obama & McCain you really should watch it, as it gives a good & I think very fair background on both of them – it’s a bit brief once the campaigns get going but useful to get a feel for their lives leading up the 2008 run. Both are cast in quite favorable lights, I would say, although one diluted scandal each is discussed. But I do think it’s the sort of thing where you can draw your own conclusion.

Anyway, 538 is saying the post-debate numbers are giving it to Obama once again, which I’m relieved to hear as I wouldn’t have been surprised this time to see a shift. But it really just looks like America has made up its mind. Yes, McCain is not BUsh, but Bush is only getting like 25% approval right now, so McCain’s doing a lot better than that! Reagan changed things at the last moment, but he didn’t get his debate until the last moment – it seemed like the voters wanted change but were hesitant to trust the new guy until they’d seen him in action, which is the same thing that’s happened this time, except that we had three debates and they happened earlier in the cycle. But Obama got thumbs up from every debate, even when the media thought the performance was basically even, and I think it’s because the citizenry just wants confirmation that he can handle it.

McCain did his best yet last night, and we’ll see if it has any effect on polls – it might close the gap a little here or there, just to make things interesting.

And keep trackof the facts.

MccAin’t Happening

Election Projection shows Obama up by 200 electoral votes, and all the changes this week in Obama’s favor. 538 has slightly less on the electoral numbers, but still says an almost 94% likelihood of an Obama win. According to electoral-vote, on this day in ‘04, Bush was already ahead by more than 50 electoral votes. Yes, there’s one more debate, and yes anything could happen. But it sure ain’t happening for him now, and it would take a dramatic turn of events.

A few days ago, Pat Buchanan apparently thought the problem was McCain was being too soft on Obama, and the commenters there, unsurprisingly, agreed – probably the same sort of supporters seen here…
But McCain backed down, trying to appear at least somewhat respectable, rather than rile up the mob.
But can he change the tone? Even his own find it hard to see how this could turn around.

There are conspiracy theories, of course, and I will admit to being prone to taking these perhaps a little too seriously. I think it’s because I grew up in a NY, lefty household and so basically have never trusted the government – they are always a bunch of crooks and liars, by definition. Sooo, watching this video did get me a little paranoid.

But I thought she was really vague about the election stuff: did she think Bush was going to claim a third term / dictatorial powers? Did she think McCain was going to somehow steal the election and continue Bush’s policies? Or did she think it simply didn’t matter who went into office next, that Obama too would turn into the next fascist leader?

I think that’s how she gets away with getting people paranoid and riled up in unison, because people can project their own fantasy of what dystopia would come about: right wing paranoid freaks would imagine evil Obama, left wing super-paranoid freaks would imagine evil Bush becoming Hitler, and left wing moderate-paranoid freaks would imagine Bush helping McCain steal the election through some kind of last minute terrorism scare. Sells more books, anyway.

I will say, though, that if McCain were to somehow win at this point, it would definitely raise questions about racism or corruption.