one more…

This poll had McCain & Obama in a tie yesterday, before the speech… I did see Obama on O’Reilly, and I think he came off pretty well, but he also seemed pretty hawkish. I can’t help wondering if that is going to turn off some percentage of his idealistic young college vote, who will then either turn to Nader – who is already doing pretty well in some states – or just stay home.

The dems made a a good comeback after the speech, and hopefully this point will continue to resonate, and people will honestly remember that McCain’s positions don’t seem to be too consistent, or when it is, seem to be pretty consistent with Bush, but in the end, I think the big policy things that are going to get attention and which the candidates disagree about are: pro or anti war, pro or anti drilling, and pro or anti universal health care. And I guess, as always, taxes.

So, last night Obama seemed to be a little weird about the war – he was made to sound as if he was less anti-war than usual, so that could come off as a point for mccain, IF people start to believe that the surge is working, which is how the RNC was selling it all week. If that narrative is bought, then America will suddenly be pro-war again, because we are fickle as all hell (remember, we were 79% in favor of invading in the beginning).

I don’t know where people stand about energy. The “drill, baby, drill” chants creeped me out, but obviously to some people it seems industrious and self-sufficient to make use of whatever oil we have, even if it’s gonna be a little destructive. But Obama also backed down on offshore drilling [ok, that article says 69% favor it, so I guess that’s where people stand], so will he just look weak on that too? Both candidates claim to want to introduce alternative sources as well… Maybe people will believe that Obama will be more committed to it.

Health care could be a big one, just because people are really dealing with it. But for older voters who remember when Hillary had a chance at this 15 years ago, they may not believe universal health care is really possible in the US. I hope this gets a lot of attention in the debates.

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6 Responses to “one more…”

  1. Stop US Wars » Blog Archive » one more… Says:

    […] unknown wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptSo, last night Obama seemed to be a little weird about the war – he was made to sound as if he was less anti-war than usual, so that could come off as a point for mccain, IF people start to believe that the surge is working, … […]

  2. rushmc Says:

    A couple of interesting links of some relevance:

    http://harpers.org/archive/2008/09/hbc-90003504

    http://www.rationalrevolution.net/blog/index.blog?entry_id=1839353

  3. drinkme Says:

    Yeah, I think Palin is a real wild card at this point, and could blow up anytime. On the other hand, things could just keep sliding off, if they manage to keep her out of the public eye enough; I really don’t know. Still, it seems like anyone who starts to buy, hm, maybe McCain is a sensible old fashioned conservative will then suddenly remember, wait, why is he running with Sarah Palin? But on the other hand, there are only two choices, so if he can get his narratives to shape the policy questions, which on drilling & the surge he has sort of managed, so far, anyway, he might end up looking more on top of things.

    But, I think we’re falling into a trap with regards to the Palin / experience thing, like I said in my first post about her. It just bounces back in our face that at least their -candidate- has real experience… It does us no good to go on about experience at all; we’re not gonna win an argument trying to convince people that Obama is better prepared than -Palin-. He isn’t mean to be running against Palin, and it only makes him look smaller to suggest it.

  4. rushmc Says:

    >>if they manage to keep her out of the public eye enough

    Wouldn’t that defeat the purpose of selecting her?

    >>It just bounces back in our face that at least their -candidate- has real experience…

    Not sure what you mean by this. As my second link points out, Obama’s experience stacks up very well to both Palin (no real comparison there) and McCain. I’ve also read that Obama has comparable experience to both Lincoln and Kennedy when they ran.

  5. drinkme Says:

    >>Wouldn’t that defeat the purpose of selecting her?

    Not necessarily, if they can make her become a sort of symbolic pick that revs the base and makes a few scripted appearances, but isn’t out and about constantly. She’s “busy running Alaska” or something. I think they could pull something off in that vein that would be enough appearance to let people project their own fantasy of what they want her to be, without letting her actually screw up and reveal too much and disappoint them… I dunno, we’ll see.

    >>Not sure what you mean by this. As my second link points out, Obama’s experience stacks up very well to both Palin (no real comparison there)

    well, that’s who he keeps getting compared to, because that’s the only reason the experience question gets raised to start with…

    >>and McCain.

    Well, it all depends how you define ‘experience’, really… but – as it turns out your link says, this is all a total side track. And I should have read your link more carefully before responding, because ultimately I basically agree with what it says (I just was tired, honestly; I’m sick and haven’t slept well -sorry-). I do think Obama might want to work in a little more of what he’s done and how it helped him understand how things work, how to make effective decisions, how to run things, etc, since those are the kinds of leadershippy skills people want to know about. But I don’t know how easy it is to just tell a story about “the time I worked for X” or whatever.

  6. rushmc Says:

    >>that’s who he keeps getting compared to

    Well, let’s not forget that before the VP pick, the McCain campaign was harping on McCain’s supposed vast experience gap over Obama.

    The problem is that assessing these people’s real experience and contrasting them one to another is a fairly complex exercise and requires an understanding of and a tolerance for nuance. In other words, not something most Americans are going to do before voting. So I agree with you that to the degree that it will be an issue, it will probably tilt toward McCain’s favor.

    But since that is preposterous, given the actual facts (particularly vis a vis Palin), I feel strongly that those who do see it should say so over and over again (since the media has demonstrated that they won’t). Maybe a few people will notice.

    Sorry that you’re sick!

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