really unconnected…

In connection that post, I just heard on the radio that “the cell phone problem” is an issue in the polls for this election, which is, pollsters can only call landlines, so any potential voters who only have a cell phone are just not getting counted in these numbers. Seems to me that could certainly count toward Obama.

I am obviously in my own little world where having a landline seems like an oddity, but I do know that in the late ’90s it was a scarcity to get a 212 number, and no one would give one up because it was considered so classy to have one, and so tacky to have a 646, but now, no one gives a shit because most people don’t even have NYS area codes anymore. People bring their area codes from wherever they came from originally, since they just bring their cell phones with them. Do they get landlines when they arrive? Maybe some do, but no one gives you their landline as a number to call, so I don’t know why they would… Maybe if they talk a lot they get better service or something…

But in my world, the only people I know with landlines are people who have had them for years and never got rid of them, and a couple people who hold onto old ways and had them installed even when they moved. But they are the outliers.

Of course I realize this is NYC, and things are sure to be different up in Albany or Rochester. Even so it seems like the cultural shift has to be taken into account, unless we seriously just don’t expect younger voters with cell phones to even bother voting, which I guess is what pollsters can say with some assurance has always been the case in the past.

That’s how they “weight” the likely voters in the polls, after all…
which ends up leading analysts to claim that the idea of a youth vote is just a myth the left is hoping for but that won’t ever show up.

Or, it could be that the youth vote is really no different from their parents – quite evenly split between dem and repub when they do show up, and so not much of a boon to the blue ticket even if they do make it to the polls in bigger numbers.

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2 Responses to “really unconnected…”

  1. rushmc Says:

    I think that statistically we’ve seen that younger people vote less than older people. There could be a number of reasons for this, but I think a big part of it is that they haven’t developed (and may not develop) the habit of voting that the older people have. I think a lot of them are much more attuned to the idea that voting has little to no impact on the outcome of many elections (thanks to gerrymandering, manipulation, and fraud), whereas more older voters are still hopeful and vote on faith. I, myself, had no intention of voting this cycle before Obama showed up, after seeing the criminal manipulation of previous elections (and I’m no longer all that young).

  2. rushmc Says:

    It never ceases to amaze me how people see in others what they want to see:

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4741274.ece

    (A much better analysis, and by a conservative: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4746999.ece)

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