updating on downturning

Election projection does a new map each monday, and yesterday’s was one of the heaviest trending toward McCain in a long time – there was no movement in Obama’s favor, and 16 states moved toward McCain, by his tallies. However, only one (Nevada) actually crossed a line from Obama to McCain – the rest just crossed lines like “solid Obama–>strong Obama” or “weak McCain–>moderate McCain”. So the electoral college numbers went from 260 – 278 to 265 – 273, with Obama still winning by 3 votes. The next projection at this site is on my birthday. Isn’t that reason enough to …

ok, maybe not, anyway.
Things look much worse over at 538, where supposedly election projections are “done right”: McCain’s ahead by 37 electoral votes, 287 to 250. And at electoral-vote.com, McCain’s got a 10 vote lead, 257 to 247, but no one is winning, since you need 270 to take the race: this site calls 34 votes “exact ties”, which means the race is basically in the hands of PA (21) and VA (13), so Obama either needs to take both of those states, or one of those and one other which is currently “barely GOP” (like OH)…

Now, it looks like some people may be losing their love of Sarah Palin, as it becomes more evident, Charlie, that her capacities are pretty thin.
And it’s possible that the current economic crisis will focus people a bit more toward an issue which is usually (scroll to “important issue”) more widely entrusted to democrats (though that may be a fallacy of assuming the consequent; maybe democratic voters just care more about the economy).
Slate discusses how Obama should handle this.

Of course, we still don’t know about the race issue. I’ve discovered the hidden racism I’ve been worrying about has got a name: The Bradley effect, after a black gubernatorial candidate in 1982 in CA who polled ahead (even in exit polls) but ultimately lost the race. The wiki seems to suggest that things are pretty different now than they were 25 years ago, and that a biracial candidate has a different situation, andandand, but of course, it was written by wikipedia nerds, not swing voters.

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BY THE Way… I recently discovered my spam file has been catching some commenters who are not spammers – I de-spammed a few people today, but it only goes back about two weeks, so I apologize if you’ve commented in the past but nothing happened. Please try again.

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5 Responses to “updating on downturning”

  1. peacay Says:

    Heh. I only watched a couple of excerpts and I wanted to reach in through the screen and muss her hair up or knock her glasses off or whatever for that annoying attempted condescension. Only ‘attempted’ because of course she is an inch deep on the majority of topics and noone can respect or believe her talking point claptrap has any authority or deep consideration behind it.

    I avidly watched the polls during the Dem race but I don’t regard them as nearly so important now in the general from this far out. I am following things pretty closely but am avoiding all poll data because it’s such a rollercoaster ride. I do [strike]think[/strike] hope B.O. will romp home ultimately.

  2. peacay Says:

    These are the stats I like to see:

  3. rushmc Says:

    Elites vs. Regulars: http://www.newyorker.com/humor/2008/09/22/080922sh_shouts_saunders

    A couple more election/polling links:



  4. rushmc Says:

    Ah, the irony…

    (Just goes to show that there is no one so insane that he doesn’t have a crazier neighbor.)


  5. rushmc Says:

    You wondered if Palin is a feminist…what about Biden?


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