MccAin’t Happening

Election Projection shows Obama up by 200 electoral votes, and all the changes this week in Obama’s favor. 538 has slightly less on the electoral numbers, but still says an almost 94% likelihood of an Obama win. According to electoral-vote, on this day in ’04, Bush was already ahead by more than 50 electoral votes. Yes, there’s one more debate, and yes anything could happen. But it sure ain’t happening for him now, and it would take a dramatic turn of events.

A few days ago, Pat Buchanan apparently thought the problem was McCain was being too soft on Obama, and the commenters there, unsurprisingly, agreed – probably the same sort of supporters seen here
But McCain backed down, trying to appear at least somewhat respectable, rather than rile up the mob.
But can he change the tone? Even his own find it hard to see how this could turn around.

There are conspiracy theories, of course, and I will admit to being prone to taking these perhaps a little too seriously. I think it’s because I grew up in a NY, lefty household and so basically have never trusted the government – they are always a bunch of crooks and liars, by definition. Sooo, watching this video did get me a little paranoid.

But I thought she was really vague about the election stuff: did she think Bush was going to claim a third term / dictatorial powers? Did she think McCain was going to somehow steal the election and continue Bush’s policies? Or did she think it simply didn’t matter who went into office next, that Obama too would turn into the next fascist leader?

I think that’s how she gets away with getting people paranoid and riled up in unison, because people can project their own fantasy of what dystopia would come about: right wing paranoid freaks would imagine evil Obama, left wing super-paranoid freaks would imagine evil Bush becoming Hitler, and left wing moderate-paranoid freaks would imagine Bush helping McCain steal the election through some kind of last minute terrorism scare. Sells more books, anyway.

I will say, though, that if McCain were to somehow win at this point, it would definitely raise questions about racism or corruption.

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2 Responses to “MccAin’t Happening”

  1. rushmc Says:

    On the other hand, there are data floating around this week showing that Gore in 2000 and Carter in 1980 (among others) had larger leads at this stage than Obama appears to have now. I hardly think it’s over, “October Surprise” notwithstanding.

  2. drinkme Says:

    yeah, I know. I try to maintain a balanced outlook, but McCain not only seems unfocused and unable to lead to me, but even his own party is not excited about him. They have a weird fascination/excitement about his running mate, it’s true, and that is worrying, but it’s a fairly small percentage overall (a “base” not a majority). So the larger percentage of people who are voting for McCain are voting -against- Obama, and the more who get to know him, the more they see that, hmm, he’s not so bad.

    I know, polls can be misleading, new events or ads or speeches could change things, but overall the money and the energy is heading toward obama…

    But still, thanks for the sobering note about the 2000 & 1980 elections.

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